65th ISI World Statistics Congress

65th ISI World Statistics Congress

IPS 975 - How Today’s Megatrends Will Reshape Official Statistics: Integrating Anticipatory Methods Into Official Statistics

Category: IPS
Thursday 9 October 2 p.m. - 3:40 p.m. (Europe/Amsterdam) Room - Everest 2

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Participants

MB
Misha Belkindas (Organiser)
R
Dominik Rozkrut (Chair)
PU
Piedad Urdinola (Discussant)
D
Elsa Dhuli (Discussant)
YM
yusuf Murangwa (Panellist)
SV
Stefaan Verhulst (Panellist)
KK
Katarzyna Kopczewska (Panellist)

While the official statistics community is still struggling with the problem of filling up the content of an expanded modus operandi enriched with the concept of data stewardship yet deeply rooted in the FPOS, new challenges and trends are emerging almost instantly, which will determine the shape of official statistics in the future. Some challenges, such as those related to digital transformation and the dawn of modern data governance systems, are already well known. Privacy protection, security and ethics are increasingly subject to in-depth discussions, exchange of experiences and expansion of knowledge. However, the scope of issues that may significantly influence the direction of the development of official statistics is much broader than what is currently focused on by the global discourse of the official statistics community. Issues that can be mentioned here include the impact of technological progress in a broader sense than merely digital transformation and industry 4.0, artificial intelligence, demographic crisis, social and cultural changes, climate change, energy transition, and geopolitics. Nonetheless, such a potentially holistic view is challenging and complex. The lack of comprehensive integration of foresight-based approaches in current activities of official statistics services further deepens this difficulty. The panel discussion will offer an opportunity to address both issues. First, the panelists will try to identify megatrends that may be most important for developing official statistics in the coming decade and beyond. The discussion will move to the issue of how to integrate a foresight approach in the strategic management of national statistical offices. Enriching a range of management instruments with foresight tools helps limit the exposure of organizations and societies to various risks resulting from the lack of a clear understanding of potential future developments and risks. The main questions to discuss are: 1. Need to go beyond evidence-based policy making to anticipatory policy-making 2. Be aware: anticipation is difficult (obviously) and dangerous (e.g. self-fulfilling) 3. Need to merge forecast with foresight to anticipate 4. Need for a new taxonomy of anticipatory methods that goes beyond forecast and foresight 5. This will require access to new and non-traditional data sources 6. Need for a decision tree on what anticipation method to use (for official statistics) The session integrates the concept of far-sighted foresight with the fundamental principles of official statistics to effectively implement the postulates and ideals enshrined therein. The session will allow to witness the power of this unique combination and gain valuable insights that will help to stay ahead in today's ever-changing world.


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