Proposal Description

The Covid-19 pandemic has underscored the critical importance of having accurate and timely eco-nomic time series, ideally with a higher than monthly frequency. These data often display seasonal dynamics that are much more complex compared to monthly and quarterly time series. Accordingly, advanced adjustment techniques are required for filtering out those regular seasonal variations, allowing for a clearer understanding of underlying economic trends and shocks, such as those experienced during the pandemic. Notably, innovative methods have been developed recently that facilitate the seasonal adjustment of daily and weekly time series. For instance, JDemetra+, an open-source seasonal adjustment software collaboratively developed by the National Bank of Belgium and the Deutsche Bundesbank, will incorporate some of these novel methods starting with its version 3.
This session aims to compare and evaluate these new seasonal adjustment methods and tools, promoting the harmonisation of the tools utilized within central banks and, more generally, official statistics. By doing so, it will contribute to the standardisation of economic data analysis and enhance the reliability of the resulting seasonally adjusted economic indicators.