Statistics for Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future
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Proposal Description
Antarctica’s environmental future is not easy to forecast, but there is scientific knowledge and data from many sources, of variable quality and at a variety of resolutions, that allow predictions to be made. Importantly, these predictions come with uncertainty and, consequently, there is a danger that ‘noise’ could be mistaken for ‘signal,’ leading to incorrect conclusions about the Antarctic and sub-Antarctic environment. Statistics, the Science of Uncertainty, provides the tools to answer key questions relating to the validity and reliability of conclusions from Antarctic studies. In this session, statistical methodology is presented to tackle spatial-statistical downscaling, ice-sheet model calibration, and the effects of present and future climate on biodiversity. The research is a consequence of a seven-year ARC Special Research Initiative, involving collaboration with ecologists and geophysicists.