TIES 2024

TIES 2024

Innovations in Wildfire Risk Modeling: Exploring Fire-Weather, Climate, and Fuel Ecology Dynamics as Drivers of Occurrence and Spread

Organiser

N
Khurram Nadeem

Participants

  • N
    Dr Khurram Nadeem
    (Chair)

  • JB
    Dr John Braun
    (Presenter/Speaker)
  • A case study on fuel treatment effects in southwestern British Columbia: Surprises found in a scenario analysis

  • T
    Dr John Thompson
    (Presenter/Speaker)
  • Classifying mixtures of forest and grassland fuel types using spatial fuzzy clustering for wildfire spread estimation

  • JB
    Jen Baron
    (Presenter/Speaker)
  • Common challenges limit applications of landscape-fire-succession models to understand fire-vegetation feedbacks

  • NP
    Mr Nathan Phelps
    (Presenter/Speaker)
  • Challenges calibrating machine learning models when predicting rare events with applications to wildfire occurrence prediction

  • Conference

    TIES 2024

    Proposal Description

    The alarming increase in severe wildland fires globally has resulted in significant environmental degradation, detrimental health impacts, and considerable economic losses due to damage to property, infrastructure, and natural resources. In Australia, for instance, extensive bushfires threaten unique biodiversity and disrupt the livelihoods of indigenous communities. Furthermore, wildfires are substantial sources of greenhouse gas emissions, exacerbating climate change and creating a cycle where elevated temperatures lead to more frequent and intense fire events.

    This session will bring together experts from various disciplines, including mathematics, statistics, and wildfire ecology, to discuss innovative approaches to wildfire risk modeling. Attendees will explore how cutting-edge statistical learning techniques can enhance predictive capabilities regarding wildfire occurrences and spread. The speakers will focus on critical factors such as fire-weather interactions, where meteorological conditions directly influence fire behavior, and how these relationships can be quantified through advanced modeling techniques.

    Additionally, the session will delve into the importance of landscape connectivity and its impact on fire spread. By analyzing the spatial patterns and connectivity of landscapes, researchers can better understand how fire moves across different terrains and vegetation types. This approach emphasizes the need for considering the configuration of the landscape, not just the types of fuel present, to develop more effective wildfire risk mitigation strategies. Furthermore, the challenges associated with the wildland-urban interface will be explored, focusing on tailored risk management practices to protect communities at risk from wildfires. This interdisciplinary approach aims to foster collaboration and generate actionable insights for enhancing wildfire preparedness and response strategies. Attending this session will provide participants with valuable insights into the latest methodologies for modeling wildfire risk and their applications in real-world scenarios.