Abstract

How do we learn about what’s going on in the world? Did a news headline grab your attention? Did a news story report on recent research? What do you need to know to be a critical consumer of the news you read? What role does statistics play in understanding the world and in the translation and communication of stories? In this talk, I describe a framework for both producing and consuming reports. My premise is that people respond to stories and narrative and that good stories can answer questions for a reader. An effective report should be able to answer the following questions and a critical reader should look to have these questions answered:
• What is claimed? and is it appropriate?
• Who is claiming this?
• Why is it claimed?
• Is this a good measure of impact?
• How is the claim supported? What evidence is reported? What is the quality / strength of the evidence?
• Is the claim reasonable in itself? Does prior belief impact my belief? Confirmation bias?
• How does this claim fit with what is already known?
• How much does this matter for me? Comparison of population perspective vs. individual perspective? Will I change my behavior as a consequence of this?
This framework is illustrated with an example where UN population projections are reported in the popular press. My comments will reflect understanding from a long-term collaboration with journalists to consider how a tactic promoting quantitative literacy led to a podcast exploring the statistics behind the stories and the stories behind the statistics and a book that did the same.