Abstract

Accurate downscaling with uncertainty quantification and its propagation to biodiversity studies are crucial for accurate, valid inferences and predictions. We propose a two-stage protocol that propagates downscaling uncertainty to generalised linear models (GLMs) commonly used for biodiversity modelling. Simulation studies show that our two-stage protocol provides accurate downscaling uncertainty when compared to existing methods. An application is given to incorporating downscaling uncertainty in predicting bryophyte (mosses) occurrence in East Antarctica. This paper presents joint research with Dr Xiaotian Zheng and Associate Professor Andrew Zammit-Mangion of the University of Wollongong; and Dr David Clarke and Professor Melodie McGeoch of Monash University.