Abstract

The Australian census has consistently shown significant increases in the number of people identifying as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander over the past two decades. Between 2006 and 2021, the Indigenous population grew from 455,026 to 812,728, an increase of 78.6%. This growth rate far exceeds that of the non-Indigenous population, which increased by 28% in the same period. While these figures suggest a rapidly growing Indigenous population, there are complex factors underlying these changes and their implications for health policy and service delivery.
This paper examines the multifaceted nature of the observed population increase, drawing on recent literature to explore its causes and consequences. The growth in census numbers reflects not only demographic factors but also significant changes in identification patterns and data collection methodologies. Madden et al. (2012) emphasise that increased willingness to identify as Indigenous, improvements in census coverage, and intergenerational effects all contribute to the observed increase. Griffiths et al. (2019) further note the impact of societal changes, including reduced stigma and growing pride in Indigenous identity.
The implications of these population changes are far-reaching, particularly in the health sector. We explore how the apparent population growth affects the interpretation of health indicators, resource allocation, as well as national and international initiatives such as the Australian Government’s ‘Closing the Gap’ and the United Nations ‘Sustainable Development Goals’. Ring and Dixon (2016) highlight the challenges these changes pose for measuring progress in reducing health disparities, particularly in life expectancy calculations. The paper also discusses the increased demand for culturally appropriate health services and the need for a more nuanced approach to health policy that accounts for the diverse and changing nature of the Indigenous population.
Moreover, we examine the spatial dimension of these changes, noting the significant growth in the urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and its implications for health service delivery. The paper argues for a recalibration of health strategies to address the needs of a growing urban Indigenous population while maintaining support for remote communities. The observed changes also have significant implications for Indigenous data sovereignty and governance. We discuss the growing call for Indigenous-led interpretation and application of demographic data in policy-making.
This paper argues that while the growing census numbers for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people represent a positive trend of increasing Indigenous recognition and cultural strength, they also present complex challenges for health policy and service delivery. We call for more sophisticated needs based approaches to data interpretation, policy formulation, and service provision that can adequately respond to the changing dynamics of Indigenous identification and population distribution. Future research directions are suggested, including the need for informed measurement approaches that reflect the changing population data landscape, as well as the potential for research studies that better understand the interplay between identity, demographic change, health services and health outcomes in Indigenous communities and the implications that this may have on resource allocation and service provision in Australia.