Adaptive Design with Small Geographies: Managing Errors and Controlling Costs
Conference
65th ISI World Statistics Congress 2025
Format: IPS Abstract - WSC 2025
Keywords: adaptive_design,, predictive_modeling
Session: IPS 788 - Advances in the Reduction of Bias Through Adaptive Design and Nonresponse Adjustments
Wednesday 8 October 10:50 a.m. - 12:30 p.m. (Europe/Amsterdam)
Abstract
The paper discusses an adaptive survey design (ASD) implemented in the American Community Survey (ACS) to control costs in the CAPI mode while minimizing impacts on variance. The design leverages predictions of balancing propensities, response propensities, and field data collection costs to identify cases for which effort can be stopped. We extend current the current ASD methodology to handle the small monthly sample sizes and small geographies of the ACS in a practical way. Results summarize the impact (in simulation) on key estimates, weights and costs with and without accounting for geography in our design. We then present similar results after the design was implemented in production.