Abstract

Road safety constitutes a major health and safety problem which requires concerted actions to ensure lasting, effective prevention. The availability of statistics and their analysis is essential for any intervention in this area. Using existing data at the National Road Safety Center, a stochastic analysis was carried out to better understand the evolution of the various statistical data concerning fatal accidents.
This study, using continuous (ARIMA, ARIMAX, SARIMA, etc.) and discrete time series models, made it possible to see the evolution of fatal accidents and also accidents involving two wheels. Thus, we have noticed a more rapid growth in fatal accidents over time, especially from 2019, despite the various policies put in place by the government to perfectly control this growth. To better explain this growth in the number of fatal accidents, we used the GLAMAR model, thus variables such as the quality of the road, collisions between vehicles, and especially two-wheeled vehicles, strongly influence fatal accidents. Of all these factors, it is easier to avoid loss of human life by putting more rigor on two-wheeled vehicles. It is within this framework that the Government has implemented a new regulatory and control policy for two-wheeled vehicles since the end of 2023, to reduce the mortality rate in road traffic. This study shows the merits of this government policy, and calls for its perpetuation to save more human lives.