Abstract

This study applies the Generalized Bass Model (GBM) to analyze the dynamics of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Uganda over time (1950 - 2021), incorporating a rectangular shock to account for significant temporal changes. The model, fitted to historical TFR data, reveals a good fit with an R-squared value of 0.997, indicating an excellent explanation of variability. Key parameters include a saturation level (m) of 703.66, a coefficient of adopter (p) of 0.0092, and a coefficient of imitation (q) of 0.0178, all significant at 5% significance level. The shock parameters highlight a substantial but brief impact on TFR explained by social influence and government intervention among others over the years. These findings underscore the model's utility in capturing both steady state and abrupt changes in fertility behavior. In conclusion, the imitation effect was greater than the adopter effect, which plays a pivotal role in shaping the dynamics of fertility rates. In Uganda, this indicates that social influence and the spread of fertility behavior among the population are significant factors driving changes in TFR. Understanding and leveraging this effect can help in designing effective policies and interventions to achieve desired fertility outcomes by 2030.