Abstract

Economic recovery began with the transition from the pandemic to the endemic Covid19 era. However, the value of aircraft prices remains a concern for Indonesian people because expenses of domestic aircraft have not decreased and have even stayed steady following Covid 19, despite the fact that the number of domestic aircraft passengers has increased since economic recovery. The high cost of aircraft fuel is one of the reasons that contribute to high domestic aircraft ticket prices. Several studies have concluded that the geopolitical risk index has resulted in an unstable economy, which is reflected in worldwide energy prices, and consequently affects fluctuations in global oil prices. Indonesia has started producing its own aircraft fuel since May 2019 in order to reduce imports and mitigate the effects of political uncertainty, but the price of aircraft fuel in Indonesia still show a volatility graph as do international energy prices. The purpose of this study is to discover the causes of Indonesia's aircraft fuel price still volatile, particularly whether or not they are influenced by the politic uncertainty. Furthermore, this study will use machine learning factor analysis and support vector regression to examine how Indonesia's aircraft fuel prices are affected by international energy prices, such as international jet fuel, petrol, and crude oil prices.