Abstract

The perception of insecurity is a paramount element in the study of crime, it measures the number of people who experience fear of being a victim of a crime; it is an important measure in decision-making involving public safety policies that allow the design, monitoring and evaluation of these programs. In Mexico, the National Survey of Victimization and Perception of Public Safety (ENVIPE) is an annual survey conducted by the National Subsystem of Information on Government, Public Safety and Law Enforcement (SNIGSPIJ) coordinated by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) that is aimed to collect information that allows the estimation of victimization and perception of insecurity in the place of residence at both national and state levels. However, local governments have increased their demand for reliable and official information at local levels, such as the municipal level. This disaggregation level is not considered in the survey design, which implies that in some municipalities the sample is null, or insufficient to provide estimates with acceptable coefficients of variation according to the reliability criteria considered by the INEGI. This, coupled with the lack of other information sources that satisfy this demand, leads to the implementation of methods to obtain this reliable information in such a way that the planned costs and resources are not altered. In this paper, the percentage of the population aged 18 years and over with perception of insecurity during March and April 2021 is estimated for each municipality in Mexico using Small Area Estimation techniques. Two methods are considered: the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor and the Spatial Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor, both based on the Fay-Herriot area-level model.