Abstract

Demographic projections of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been widely used in climate change research. Under the SSP-RCP (representative concentration pathways)-SPA (shared climate policy association) framework, a set of quantitative modeling tools associated with SSP can facilitate cross-disciplinary collaborations and exchanges in climate change research communities by adopting commonly understood languages and consistently used tools. To achieve climate-sensitive population projections, demographers must take a further step and develop models that quantitatively account for the effects of climate change on fertility, mortality, and migration. The coupled demographic-emissions-climate model system shall incorporate multidimensional demographic factors (age, gender, education, household, rural-urban residence) into the projections. The use of climate-sensitive population projections can help advance adaptation research and climate policies. Multiscale demographic modeling extends global SSPs to suit local circumstances and achieve spatial consistency across scales. To inform local climate policies, it shall consider sociodemographic characteristics that are mostly relevant and sensitive to climate change mitigation and adaptation challenges, such as ethnicity, migration status, religion; spatial downscaling allocates projected aggregate population to grids using a geographical mask that can take into account projected changes in the climate systems (sea level, heat island, flood, storm surge), conservation efforts, mitigation and adaptation projects.