Good Practices and Common Pitfalls in Climate Time Series Changepoint Analysis
Conference
64th ISI World Statistics Congress
Format: IPS Abstract
Session: IPS 185 - Novel changepoint methodology, and their application to environmental data.
Tuesday 18 July 2 p.m. - 3:40 p.m. (Canada/Eastern)
Abstract
Climate changepoint (homogenization) methods are widely used today, with a plethora of techniques existing in both the climate and statistics literature.
Unfortunately, many practitioners are uncertain about which changepoint technique is appropriate to use. Furthermore, changepoint conclusions are not robust to small perturbations in assumptions; for example, allowing for a trend or correlation in the series can significantly alter the conclusions. This discussion is a review of the changepoint topic, with an emphasis on illuminating the models and techniques that enable scientists to draw reliable conclusions. Pitfalls to avoid are demonstrated via actual applications, and best practices are recommended.